Peanut-Man Gets His

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In many cases, public congressional hearings are used merely as opportunities for Congressmen to grandstand and help their own image - and dragging in the guy who ran the salmonella-infested peanut plant strikes me as just such a situation. However, in this particular case, I will give props to the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations. Sometimes, bad guys need to get their comeuppance publicly - and Stewart Parnell got his in a big way today.

I'm sure a lot of you have seen pieces of this on the news, but I really think you need to watch the whole 4 minutes to see just how much of a laughingstock this guy made of himself. It's one thing to take the fifth when asked if you committed a crime, but it's downright ridiculous to take it when you're merely being asked if you heard the previous testimony. Subcommittee Chairman Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) did a great job asking just enough questions to make a fool of this guy, and for not letting him go before making sure that Rep. Greg Walden (R-OR) got to ask the question that ended up on every nightly newscast in America.

There might not have been much using in brining this guy in in the first place, but it was first-class political theatre. Good work by the bipartisan tag-team of Stupak and Walden.

Israeli Election Liveblog

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8:41 PM - Well, it doesn't look like much is going to change from here on in. Clearly Kadima has the most seats, but the right wing parties won a majority. the decision on who gets to form a coalition goes to the country's ceremonial president, Shimon Peres (a Kadima member). However, Peres will have to meet with the leaders of all the parties to get their recommendations on who to make PM. The kingmaker is probably Avigdor Lieberman of third place Yisrael Beiteinu. I think he's going to recommend that Netanyahu be made PM, but he's playing it coy and leaving open the possibility of joining a Kadima coalition. It's anyone's game, but it looks like there is a good chance that, despite Likud's second-place finish, Benjamin Netanyahu will get into the Prime Minister's office by the skin of his teeth. Since things are stable, I think this will be the last post tonight unless anything big changes. Hope you enjoyed this as much as I did.

7:43 PM - 91% of the vote has been counted, and no major changes. Kadima up to 29, Yisrael Beiteinu drops to 15, Meretz and Jewish home both drop to 3. The reason for this is that the Balad Party, an Arab party, got up to 2% of the vote, passing the minimum threshold to win Knesset seats. Hence, Balad now has 3 seats rather than zero, and the Arab parties now total 11 seats. This is also significant because the #3 candidate on Balad's Kneset list, Haneen Zoubi, is fighting to become the first woman to ever represent and Arab party in the Knesset. So, she will get in if these numbers hold. Two other Arab women have sat in the Knesset, but they represented the mainstream Jewish-based parties. While I really dislike the Arab Parties' views, this is a big victory for women's rights in the Arab world. So, congratulations to Ms. Zoubi on her accomplishment.

6:29 PM - I just got back to my house, and 43% of the votes are in. Now, the seats in the Knesset are divided by the percentage of the national votes each party receives. Hence, the numbers of seats that I will list below are based on what the division will be if the current results remain steady. I will also be listing two breakdowns - one listing the seats won by each party, and one listing how many seats each ideological coalition of parties has won (61 needed for a majority). So without further ad0, here are the current seat totals.

By Party

28 - Kadima (Tzipi Livni)
27 - Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu)
16 - Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman)
13 - Labor (Ehud Barak)
11 - Shas (Eli Yishai)
5 - United Torah Judaism (Yaakov Litzman)
4 - Meretz (Haim Oron)
4 - National Union (Yaakov Katz)
4 - Jewish Home (Daniel Hershkovitz)
4 - Hadash (Mohammad Barakeh)
4 - United Arab List-Ta'al (Ibrahim Sarsur)

By Coalition

62 - Right-Wing (Likud, Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, Jewish Home, National Union)
45 - Left-Wing (Kadima, Labor, Meretz)
5 - Swing Voters (United Torah Judaism)
8 - Won't help anyone (Hadash, UAL-Ta'al)

So, Livni wins the party vote and Netanyahu has the bigger coalition - and both think they just got elected Prime Minister. It's more likely that Netanyahu will get the nod, but if Livni canswing one or two other parties, Livni could take it.


5:25 PM - Netanyahu's people aren't pleased with the exit polls showing Livni in the lead. However, they are also reminding everyone that those exit polls do not poll the military - which usually skews to the right. I would remind every one that every Israel has a universal draft and mandatory military service, so the army is a big chunk of votes that could push Likud past Kadima in the seat count. Guess we'll find out when we get results.

4:58 PM - Still waiting for first official results.

4:05 PM - Gotta love politicians - not a single vote has been counted and both Netanyahu and Livni's forces have already declared victory. Actually, both have good reason. Exit polls show Kadima winning the most seats of any party. However, the same pols show that Likud-allied parties on the right will pick up far more total seats than left wing parties that would prefer Kadima. So, if the exit polls are right, Livni will head the largest party, but Netanyahu will have a bigger coalition. Oy vey.

3:43 PM - I finally found live streaming TV coverage in English. If you want the same up-to-the-minute info that I'm getting, you can get it from Arutz Sheva Channel 7.

3:12 PM - Polls have been closed for about an hour and all three of the nation's major TV channels have released their exit polls. All three show Kadima in the lead, followed closely by Likud, with Yisrael Beiteinu barely edging out Labor for a distant third. Now, we all know how unscientific exit polls can be, and these results differ starkly from the last phone polls a week ago (which showed Likud first, Kadima second, and Yisrael Beiteinu far ahead of Labor). That said, Kadima leader Tzipi Livni is probably bouncing off the walls right now, while Benjamin Netanyahu and Avigdor are probably in very bad moods. Either way, there is a lot of counting left to be done. I'll let you know official results as soon as I see them.

12:19 PM - Off topic, but I'm doing a little double dipping today while attending a Club for Growth/Heritage Foundation conference on the stimulus.

10:23 AM - Hadn't thought of this, but it's a good point. The Jerusalem Post is saying that the two ultra-orthodox religious parties - Shas and United Torah Judaism - are freaking out about the high turnout. When you depend on a highly motivated religious minority to win seats - your share of the vote gets diluted when the general public are just as motivated as the ultra-orthodox (who in many cases are ordered by their rabbis to show up and vote for their said rabbi's preferred party).

8:58 A M - Ha'aretz News is reporting unexpectedly high turnout, which probably adds more uncertainty about who will win because all of those people who told pollsters are showing up. We've also had several bits of drama. Protesters in the Arab town of Umm al-Fahm, have disallowed anti-Arab fascist Baruch Marzel from serving as an election monitor in that town, and the violence forced police to remove his replacement (far-right legislator Aryeh Eldad). And finally, some lady in Jerusalem got busted trying to smuggle fake Yisrael Beiteiu votes into a polling station.
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It's almost 1:00 AM Eastern Time, which means that polls have been open in Israel for almost an hour (it's almost 8:00 AM there). If you haven't already figured it out, I am absolutely obsessed with this election, as I think the outcome will drastically affect the situation in the Midldle East. Hence, I will be liveblogging the all day - providing you with quick news updates throughout the process. Polls close at 8:00 PM, which will be 2:00 PM here in Washington, DC - so luckily we Americans don't have to pull an all-nighter to watch the results roll in. One quick question for you as readers: would you all prefer that I enter my updates as additions to the top of this post or as seperate posts? Personally, I think it would be better for the comments section if just keep this post active, but I'd like some reader feedback.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu storm back to power after a decade in the wilderness? Will the fast-closing Tzipi Livni and her Kadima Party pull off the upset? Will dark-horse nationalist Avigdor Lieberman and the Yisrael Beiteinu Party shock the world? Will there be anything left of the Labor Party by Wednesday morning? Only time will tell.

Buckle up - because this one is coming down to a phot0-finish and it's going to be one heck of a ride.

Madagascar! (Rated R for Exterme Violence)

When most people think of Madagascar, they probably think of the friendly lion, the dancing lemur king, and the cadre of psychotic penguins that we all know from the movie (and if you don't - just ask your kids or grandkids). However, it's a very real place...and right now it looks more like a horror flick than an animated comedy. Numerous people died yesterday in the capital city of Antananarivo, and quite a lot of them were unarmed protesters gunned down by riot police outside the presidential palace.

The mess started a few days ago when the country's President, Marc Ravalomanana, fired the elected mayor of Antananarivo, who also happens to be the Madagascar's leading opposition leaders. The charismatic young mayor, Andry Rajoelina, decided to fight back by launching a grassroots revolution against Ravalomanana's leadership and declaring himself to be the new head of the country. He's now holding lots of protests and rallies, and when one of those protests marched to the presidential place, the police did some unnecessary shooting. I've also read that there are a lot of looting problems.

Personally, I'm not a huge fan of either side. Ravalomanana had no business firing a mayor and seems to like his power a little too much. On the other hand, Rajoelina the supposed voice of democratic reform) responded by throwing a hissy fit and trying to take over the country by force...not terribly democratic if you ask me. He also doesn't seem to have a whole lot of respect for the law, as he would be constitutionally barred from holding the office due to the fact that he is under age 40 (he's 34).

Why am I mentioning this? Well, I'm just sick of stuff like this not getting any coverage in our media. I realize that it's not a neat and tidy issue, and that Madagascar may not be a very big country. However, it's just hard for me to stomach that nobody is noticing that this stuff is going on. (Caution, this video is a bit graphic, but I would suggest watching)

Avigdor Lieberman: International Man of Mystery

I wasn't planning to do another Israel post so soon, but this guy absolutely fascinates me...and has the potential to become a real wild card in our (or anyone's) relations with Israel. Meet Avigdor Lieberman, the man who seemingly came from nowhere to become one of the biggest players on the Israeli political scene. He wont be Prime Minister after next Tuesday's election - that fight is between Tzipi Livni and Benjamin Netanyahu - but the performance of his Yisrael Beiteinu Party will likely determine who does get the big office, and he is going to land a BIG cabinet job regardless. Right now five of the six top stories on the Jerusalem Post's "Election '09" page are about Lieberman or his party, and the banner at the top of the page was edited yesterday to add his picture alongside the leaders of the three major parties. Not bad, considering that Lieberman built his party entirely from scratch in only ten years. So, who is this guy, and how did he pull off one of the most surprising and meteoric rises in world politics?

In a former life, Lieberman was a big player in the Likud Party, and even worked as Director-General of the Prime Minister's Office during Benjamin Netanyahu's first stint as Prime Minister. But in 1999 he ditched Likud and started a new far-right party from scratch, calling it Yisrael Beiteinu ("Israel Our Home"). An unabashed nationalist, Lieberman became known for his harsh anti-Arab rhetoric - demanding that Israeli Arabs swear loyalty to Israel or be stripped of their citizenship - and his controversial peace plan. "The Lieberman Plan" calls for a two-state solution in which predominantly Arab towns in Israel would be traded to Palestine in return for Israeli settlements in the Palestinian Territories.

Yisrael Beiteinu was primarily composed of Russian Jewish immigrants who came to Israel in the late 20th century (Lieberman himself came from Moldova in 1978), and was able to quickly capitalize on support from the immigrant community. Hence, they won four seats in the Knesset (or Parliament) in the 1999 elections, and Lieberman entered the Knesset for the first time not as a mere freshman legislator, but as the leader of a new political movement. He quickly merged Yisrael Beiteinu into the National Union, a coalition of far-right parties that function as one in elections, and contested the 2003 election under their banner. However, he seems to have realized that the Union was holding him back, and Yisrael Beiteinu contested the 2006 election on their own. He made the right move, and Yisrael Beiteinu rocketed to prominence by winning 11 seats.

While the 2006 showing was impressive, it now seems to have been merely warm-up for next week - when Yisrael Beiteinu will likely become Israel's fourth major political party (the other three being Labor, Likud, and Kadima). Polls currently show Lieberman's forces winning between 18 and 20 seats in the Knesset, and still climbing. The Labor Party, once the dominant force in Israeli politics, appears to be eating Yisrael Beiteinu's dust in the race for third place, and the leaders of Likud and Kadima are rushing to kiss up to the suddenly-popular Avigdor Lieberman.

While Lieberman has expressed his desire to join a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu and the right-wing Likud Party, he may actually be sabotaging that party's chances. Likud voters, disillusioned with their party's drift to the center, are hemorrhaging to Yisrael Beiteinu. Hence, Netanyahu is quickly running back to the right and trying to woo back voters with the promise that Lieberman will get a senior ministry in his cabinet. Meanwhile, Kadima leader Tzipi Livni is also trying to cash in on Lieberman's sudden popularity by publicly declaring that he would be an acceptable coalition partner in her government (despite Lieberman's statements to the contrary).

So, what does this mean for the US? Well, it looks like Lieberman will land one of the major cabinet ministries under either Netanyahu or Livni...meaning he will either be Foreign Minister, Defense Minister, or Finance Minister. If he lands the Foreign Ministry, equivalent to the U.S. Secretary of State, our diplomats will suddenly be dealing with a controversial firebrand as their Isreali counterpart. I said yesterday that Netanyahu might have personality issues with Barack Obama...but there could be even more tension between Hillary Clinton and Avigdor Lieberman. However, I would expect Lieberman to be kept away from the Foreign Ministry, as tact and diplomacy are not his strong suits. More likely, he will be handed the Defense Ministry, putting him in charge of the Israeli military...and if anyone takes less flak from terrorists than Benjamin Netanyahu, it's Avigdor Lieberman. So, having both of them in power simultaneously would be bad news for Israel's enemies. Then again, Yisrael Beiteinu might actually be responsible for installing a leftist government, as they could split the right wing vote with Netanyahu - allowing the dovish Tzipi Livni to run up the middle and become Prime Minister.

Now, to be clear, my endorsement in these elections goes to Netanyahu and Likud. Lieberman is just a tad too radical in his nationalism for my liking, and his distaste for Israeli Arabs doesn't sit quite right with me. That said, it is hard not to admire his work in building Yisrael Beiteinu into a national force so quickly - and it will be hard to ignore the mark he leaves on the Middle East.

Election '09 - Israel Decides

It is one of the most important decisions of our generation, and the repercussions could be felt around the world...No, I'm not talking about the election of Barack Obama, I'm talking about the parliamentary election taking place in Israel next Tuesday. Obviously, Israel has always been a flashpoint in world politics, but a number of on going situations make this election particularly important.

First, there is a great deal of tension between the Israelis and the Iranians. Second, Israel is coming off a major military offensive in Gaza. And Third, US-Israeli relations could become strained if the new Prime Minister's approach differs from that of Barack Obama. So, with the future of the Middle East hanging in the balance, I will be keeping a close eye on this race as it enters it's final week. Today, I'm putting out a quick primer so that you can make sense of Israel's convoluted political scene - this way I will not have to explain as much moving forward.

The race for Prime Minister basically comes down to two people: former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud Party (pictured top left), a right wing hardliner; and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (top middle) of the Kadima Party, a dovish centrist. Right now, polls show Natanyahu's Likud barely ahead of Livni's Kadima in the race to become the largest party in the Knesset (Parliament). However, one must win a MAJORITY of votes in the Knesset to become Prime Minister, and Israel's election system makes it impossible for one party to win that many seats. In fact, polls currently show first-place Likud winning only about 30 of the 120 seats. There are a plethora of political parties (11 in the last Knesset), all with different individual quirks, and all taking votes from each other - so it is essential to watch at least the top five to understand what's going on.

The third key player other than Likud and Kadima is the left-wing Labor Party, led by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak (top left). Labor was once the country's dominant political force, and currently in second place in the Knesset behind Kadima. However, the party has crashed in the polls and will be lucky to finish in third this go-round. In a coalition, Labor would be far more comfortable working with Livni than Netanyahu.

However, to remain relevant, Labor will have to hold off the surging Yisrael Beiteinu Party, and it's charismatic leader Avigdor Lieberman (bottom right). Lieberman's forces, supported mainly by Russian immigrants, scored major gains in the last election, and polls currently show them speeding past Labor into third. The right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu represents a HUGE wild card in this election, as most of their votes are being taken from Likud. While most people see Lieberman as closer to Netanyahu in ideology, he also shares several key views with Livni, and could work with either. As of now, Netanyahu's biggest fear seems to be that Livni will win not on her own merit, but because Yisrael Beiteinu will siphon a lot of Likud votes at the last minute.

And finally, the last major force to watch is Shas, led by Eli Yishai (bottom left). Shas is the orthodox religious party of the Sephardim (Jews originating in the Middle East or Spain), and will probably finish fifth. They are right-wing hardliners when it comes to policy on the Palestinians, but skew to the left on domestic issues, as their Sephardic voter base is a poor demographic. They have committed to joining a Netanyahu-led government, but the rub is that they may have a hard time working with Yisrael Beiteinu in a coalition.

So, have I confused you yet? I'm guessing that's a "yes", but I'm doing this now so that I can just cover the horserace when the election actually happens (otherwise I'd have to explain this stuff all in the middle of my coverage...which would REALLY annoy you). For now, just be glad I'm not talking about all of the other parties that will come up later - like Meretz, United Torah Judaism, the Gil Pensioners Party, the National Union, Jewish Home, Hadash, Balad, or the United Arab List-Ta'al.

If you want actual coverage right now (assuming I haven't melted your brain with my list of people and parties), the two leading English news outlets in Israel are Ha'aretz and the Jerusalem Post. This race is going to be a lot of fun to cover.

The Worst Cabinet in History?

I keep starting blog posts, only to have news break and change my plans. I was going to write about the election in Israel, then Qadaffi got elected head of the African Union...so I was going to write on that, but I had a late night last night, so this morning I decided to to go back to Israel. Then I heard that Tom Daschle withdrew his nomination for Secretary of Health and Human Services. So, now I feel compelled to comment on Barack Obama's amazing crumbling cabinet. (We'll do Israel tomorrow or later tonight).

If you haven't noticed, our new President is being repeatedly embarrassed by his cabinet choices. First, Commerce Secretary-designate Bill Richardson dropped out after becoming involved in a grand jury investigation. Then, we found out that Attorney General-designate Eric Holder was heavily involved in Bill Clinton's dubious, last minute pardon of fugitive Marc Rich. Then, we heard that there were tax problems surrounding, of all people, TREASURY Secretary-designate Tim Giethner. THEN, Obama created the new position Chief Performance Officer to monitor government spending, only to see nominee Nancy Killefer withdraw today over tax issues. And finally, Tom Daschle withdrew his nomination to lead the HHS Department, which happens to be one of the biggest departments in the federal government.

I haven't been been able to do too much research yet, but so far it looks like the Obama Administration is suffering more embarrassments than any incoming administration in recent memory. It's not uncommon for one Cabinet nominee to bite the dust in confirmation. For instance, George W. Bush lost his first choice for Labor Secretary, Linda Chavez, and George H.W. Bush lost his first choice for Defense Secretary, John Tower. However, losing two is pretty bad, especially when it is compounded by the withdrawal of a high profile non-cabinet officer (Killefer) and major ethical concerns holding up the confirmation of two other cabinet secretaries (Geithner and Holder).

In all frankness, I think that the incoming administration has displayed a rather appalling lack of vetting skills, and they are rightly being embarrassed. I also think that the Daschle situation may have been the last straw for the mainstream media...because if today's coverage on CNN is any indication , the honeymoon may have been officially cancelled.

Super Sunday Confession

I know this is a political blog...but sometimes you just have to embrace the spirit of the moment, and nobody is thinking about much other than football today. So, we can talk about the stimulus package and the elections in Israel tomorrow. Today, it's time to eat junk food, laugh at commercials and cheer on the team of your choice...which brings me to the subject of this post:

I was raised in Colorado, so the Denver Broncos are the team that I'm most consistently loyal to, but my extended family roots are in Altoona , Pennsylvania. So, when the Steelers make it to the Super Bowl, three generations of Coloradoans embrace their roots and cheer on their team. A lot of the time, I would side with them, but I'm also a guy who loves underdog stories. So, I would like to take this opportunity to express my solidarity with the team that I will be cheering for in today's game:

Here's hoping that Warner and company can bring home the Cardinal's first championship in six decades. LET'S GO CARDS!